Provisional Scenario: This analysis is based on projected fixtures. Official schedule for this match has not been confirmed by BCCI. Teams, date, and venue are subject to change.
Match Brief
GT slight edge at Ahmedabad โ spin-friendly pitch
GT 56%
LSG 44%
Uncertainty: ยฑ6% โ range reflects model variance, not vibes
GT: middle-order soliditybatting
Spin-friendly Ahmedabad pitchconditions
GT: death bowling qualityteam
GT
155-185
PROJECTED
LSG
151-181
Dew
low
Pitch
spin-friendly
Boundaries
large
GT's spin arsenal gives them the edge on a turning Ahmedabad surface.
Data cutoff: Date TBA ยท Model: v1.0-baseline-2026
๐ฅ What to Watch
Powerplay (1-6)
Overs 1-6: Can LSG survive the new ball on a turning surface?
Middle Overs (7-15)
Overs 7-15: Spin stranglehold โ GT's spinners vs LSG's rotation game
Death (16-20)
Overs 16-20: Death overs shift โ pace vs dew could flip the script
๐ถ๏ธ Hot Take
If LSG win the toss and chase, this flips to 50-50.
Based on Ahmedabad conditions and low dew risk
๐ฌ The Lab โ Deep Dive
Why GT at 56%
Modelv1.0-baseline-2026
Data CutoffDate TBA
InputsH2H record, venue history, team composition
OutputsWin probability band, score band, matchup edges
Last ComputedDate TBA
Key Factors
GT's superior recent form and team composition give them the edge.
Venue conditions at Narendra Modi Stadium historically favour GT's playing style.
The balance between bat and ball in GT's squad is better suited for this matchup.
Head-to-head record and momentum suggest GT starts as marginal favourites.
GT Key Players
Player
Role
Shubman Gill
Captain / Batsman
Rashid Khan
Leg Spinner
Jos Buttler
WK-Batsman
Mohammed Siraj
Pace Bowler
Kagiso Rabada
Pace Bowler
LSG Key Players
Player
Role
Rishabh Pant
Captain / WK-Batsman
Nicholas Pooran
WK-Batsman
David Miller
Batsman
Ravi Bishnoi
Leg Spinner
Avesh Khan
Pace Bowler
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
The world's largest cricket stadium. Pitch has improved for batting. The massive boundary adds challenge for batsmen. High-profile matches hosted here regularly.
168
Venue Avg 1st Innings
50%
Pace Impact
50%
Spin Impact
Toss & Dew Factor
Winning the toss and bowling first could be crucial at this venue. Dew factor in evening matches could influence the toss decision significantly.
Data cutoff: Date TBA ยท All sources are Tier 1 (official or ESPN). Verify independently before acting on any information.
Model Performance
Model v1.0 ยท First Season ยท Not Yet Backtested
This is the model's debut season. Backtesting results will be available after IPL 2026 matches are completed. We believe in honest reporting โ no fabricated accuracy claims.